Card counting with Hi-Lo

Card counting is keeping a simple tally of the cards that have been played, so you know when the cards still in the shoe favor you. Then you bet more when they do. No memory tricks or math genius needed: just adding and subtracting 1.

Why counting works

Every card that’s played is gone until the shuffle. When a lot of small cards have come out, the rest of the shoe is rich in 10s and aces, and that helps you:

• More blackjacks. You and the dealer get them equally often, but yours pay 3 to 2 and the dealer’s only win your bet.
• Doubles work better. When you double on 10 or 11, a 10 is what you want.
• The dealer busts more. The dealer must hit stiff hands (12–16), and more 10s means more busts. You get to stand on your stiffs; the dealer doesn’t.

When the shoe is full of small cards, it’s the reverse, and the house edge grows. Counting tells you which situation you’re in.

The Hi-Lo values

Each card gets one of three values:

There are as many +1 cards (five ranks) as −1 cards (five ranks), so a whole deck adds up to exactly 0. That makes Hi-Lo a “balanced” count: when you reach the end of the shoe, a correct count lands back on 0.

The running count

Start at 0 when the dealer shuffles. Add every card’s value as you see it: yours, the other players’, and the dealer’s, including the hole card when it’s turned over. That total is the running count.

Example: the first hand shows K, 4, 9, 6, A, 2, 10, 5. That’s −1 +1 0 +1 −1 +1 −1 +1 = +1. Carry the +1 into the next hand and keep going until the shuffle.

Two habits make it faster:

• Cancel pairs. A high card and a low card in the same glance cancel to 0, so skip them. A K and a 4 together are just nothing.
• Count in groups, not cards. Look at a whole hand (K, 6) and see “0” instead of adding −1 and +1 one at a time.

The true count

A running count of +6 means something very different with one deck left than with five. With one deck left, those 6 extra high cards are packed into 52 cards. With five decks left, they’re spread across 260. So you divide:

True count = running count ÷ decks left

You estimate decks left by looking at the discard tray: if about two decks have been played from a six-deck shoe, about four are left. Estimating to the nearest half deck is close enough. Then round the result down to the whole number below. The trainer does the same.

Each +1 of true count is worth roughly half a percent to you. With these rules the house starts with an edge of about 0.4%, so around true +1 the game is about even, and from +2 up you have the edge.

Sizing your bets: the ramp

The edge only helps if you have more money out when you hold it. A bet ramp is your rule for how much to bet at each true count. Bets are in units, where one unit is your normal minimum bet. This is the ramp the trainer uses:

When the count is low you bet the minimum (or leave the table). As it rises, you step up. The gap between your smallest and largest bet is your spread; this ramp is a 1-to-8 spread. A bigger spread earns more, but it’s also easier for the casino to notice.

Your bankroll needs to be large compared with your unit. Even when you have the edge, it’s small, and losing streaks of dozens of units happen to perfect players. Only count with money you can afford to lose.

Count plays: when to change your play

Basic strategy assumes an average shoe. When the count is far from 0, a few plays flip. The best-known list is the Illustrious 18, the eighteen changes worth the most. These are Hi-Lo indexes for 6 decks, dealer stands on soft 17:

Learn them in the order listed: the first ones come up most and are worth the most. The first three alone (insurance, 16 against 10, 15 against 10) are worth a large share of the whole list. Insurance is the only time a counter takes that bet.

How to practice

1. Count down a deck. Shuffle one deck, turn the cards over one at a time, and keep the count. You should finish on 0. Hold back a card at random, and your final count tells you whether it was low, neutral or high. Work toward a full deck in under 30 seconds.
2. Count in pairs. Turn the cards over two at a time and say the pair’s total: high and low cancel.
3. Count with distractions. In the trainer’s BJ tab, turn on Show the count and play hands with other players at the table. Check yourself against the count on the felt.
4. Count with the count hidden. Switch to Test me. The count disappears, and the trainer stops you every few hands, and at the cut card, to ask for it.
5. Add the bet ramp and count plays. Turn on bet sizing tips and count-based plays. After each hand, the trainer grades your bet against the true count at the deal and shows the math.

What it’s really like

• The edge is small. A good counter playing a good game might earn around half a percent to one percent of the money they bet. Swings are far larger than that over any single night.
• It’s legal, but casinos don’t want it. Counting in your head isn’t cheating. Using a device to count is illegal in many places. A casino is a private business and can ask you to stop playing blackjack, or to leave (New Jersey is an exception: casinos there can’t bar counters, but they can shuffle more often).
• Casinos watch for the bet spread. Jumping from the minimum to a big bet right as the count rises is the classic tell. That’s why the trainer has a heat meter and cover tips, such as raising your bet after a win, the way ordinary players do, rather than out of nowhere.
• The game has to be countable. Continuous shuffling machines put the cards back after every hand, so the count never builds. Counting also gains less when the dealer cuts off a lot of the shoe (low penetration), and 6-to-5 blackjack takes away more than counting gives back.